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How to Find Strong Retail and Wholesale Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises

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Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Lowe's?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Lowe's (LOW - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 29 days from its next quarterly earnings release on August 22, 2023, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.50 a share.

LOW has an Earnings ESP figure of +0.32%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $4.50 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.49. Lowe's is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

LOW is just one of a large group of Retail and Wholesale stocks with a positive ESP figure. O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

O'Reilly Automotive is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on July 26, 2023. ORLY's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $10.21 a share two days from its next earnings release.

For O'Reilly Automotive, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.05 is +1.57%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, LOW and ORLY could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


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Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) - free report >>

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) - free report >>

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